Weaponizing the Watershed: The Geopolitical Fragility of the Indus Waters Treaty

Published on: 11th June 2026

Authored by: Dev Sharma

National Law University, Jodhpur

ABSTRACT

The Indus Water Treaty, one of the most important treaty¹ for India and Pakistan, was negotiated by the World Bank. The IWT was made to distribute the water of the Indus River System between India and Pakistan due to frequent clashes between them. The recent legal update regarding this treaty¹ was that India has put this in abeyance until further orders, i.e., India has suspended the IWT , and soon the water will be diverted towards India only, increasing the chances of using it as a weapon. The IWT is considered one of the most successful treaties, withstanding 3 wars and numerous disputes with this treaty¹ between India and Pakistan.

The move to put the IWT in suspension was made after the Pahalgam attack on 22^nd April, 2025 in Anantnag district of Jammu & Kashmir and the IWT was put in abeyance the same day, while till this date the decision of suspending this treaty¹ has not been revoked, i.e., this treaty¹ is still in suspension from the Indian Government.

INTRODUCTION

The Indus Water Treaty was negotiated by the World Bank Group, an organisation under the United Nations. The World Bank Group consists of 5 organisations³.

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), established in 1944
International Development Organisation (IDA), established in 1960
International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), established in 1965
International Finance Corporation (IFC), established in 1956
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), established in 1988

The Treaty was signed in Karachi (the capital until 14^th August 1967) on 19^th September 1960. The Treaty was signed between India (Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, Prime Minister of India) and Pakistan (Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan). The Treaty aims to distribute the water of the Indus River System in the ratio of 80:20 between the countries.

The Indus River System consists of 2 Tributaries⁴:

Left-Bank Tributaries
Right- Bank Tributaries

Left – Bank Tributaries
- Zaskar
- Suru
- Soan
- Jhelum
- Chenab
- Ravi
- Beas
- Sutlej
- Panjnad

Right – Bank Tributaries
- Shyok
- Gilgit
- Hunza
- Swat
- Kunnar
- Kiram
- Gomal
- Tochi
- Kabul

The most important among us are the 6 Rivers:

Ravi
Beas
Sutlej
Indus
Jhelum
Chenab

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The Indus River System originates from a glacier near Bokhar Chu in the Tibetan Region, in the Kaliash Mountain Range, close to Mansarovar Lake. The river flows northwest and enters the Ladakh region in India, called Demchok. After it enters India, the river flows between the Karakoram and Ladakh ranges. In Tibet, the river is also known as Singi Khamban or Lion’s Mouth. The river flows from Ladakh to Punjab and Sindh before emptying into the Arabian Sea south of Karachi and Kori Creek in Gujarat.

The partition that was done by the British was based on religion, not on any other factor, like geographical location. This river soon turned into a dispute between India and Pakistan. The Indus River is the biggest in Pakistan and one of the biggest in Asia. The geography was such that the sources of the river were in India, which gave India an edge over Pakistan. During the partition, Sir Cyril Radcliffe asked both India and Pakistan about the river system, but got no answers from either side. Hence, he cut the river into two parts, one for India and another for Pakistan.

In 1951, David Lilienthal wrote an article named Another Korea in Making⁵ showing the tension between India and Pakistan due to water disputes. This article also suggests that David Lilienthal was the founding architect of the Indus Water Treaty. This article led to the negotiations from 1951 to 1960 through the World Bank with India and Pakistan. On 19 September 1960, this treaty was finally signed between the countries.

ARTICLES UNDER INDUS WATER TREATY

Indus Water Treaty, signed on 19^th September 1960 in Karachi between India and Pakistan, consists of 12 Articles⁶ and 8 Annexures⁶ (A to H).

ARTICLES IN THE INDUS WATER TREATY

ARTICLE – 1: Definitions

ARTICLE – 2: Provision Regarding Eastern Rivers

ARTICLE – 3: Provision Regarding Western Rivers

ARTICLE – 4: Provision Regarding Eastern and Western Rivers

ARTICLE – 5: Financial Provisions

ARTICLE – 6: Exchange of Data

ARTICLE – 7: Future Co-operation

ARTICLE – 8: Permanent Indus Commission

ARTICLE – 9: Settlement of Disputes and Differences

ARTICLE – 10: Emergency Provisions

ARTICLE – 11: General Provisions

ARTICLE – 12: Final Provisions

ANNEXURES IN THE INDUS WATER TREATY

ANNEXURE – A: Exchange of Notes

ANNEXURE – B: Agricultural Use by Pakistan (Eastern Rivers)

ANNEXURE – C: Agricultural use by India (Western Rivers)

ANNEXURE –D: Generation of Hydroelectric Power (Western Rivers)

ANNEXURE – E: Storage of Waters by India (Western Rivers)

ANNEXURE – F: Neutral Expert

ANNEXURE – G: Court of Arbitration

ANNEXURE – H: Transitional Arrangements

DISPUTES RELATED TO THE INDUS RIVER SYSTEM

THE INDIA – PAKISTAN DISPUTE OF 1948⁷

India and Pakistan had a dispute over the river system in April 1948, shortly after Independence. The East Punjab (India) cut off the supply of water to West Punjab (Pakistan) via the main branches of the Dipalpur Canal from the Ferozepur Headworks. However, it was resumed after 5 weeks, after Pakistan agreed to attend an Inter – Dominion conference for negotiation. The engineers of East and West Punjab signed a standstill agreement from December 1947 to March 1648 for the period of the Rabi Crop. After the expiration of the agreement, West Punjab declined to go ahead with the agreement, leading to India cutting off their water supply, making the first instance of the Indus River system to be used as a weapon. However, in May 1948 and Inter – Dominion Accord was signed, requiring India to provide water to the Pakistan Water Basin in return for annual payments.

TULBUL NAVIGATION BARRAGE PROJECT – JHELUM RIVER⁸

The TULBUL Navigation Project is a navigation lock-cum-control structure proposed at the outskirts of Wular Lake on the Jhelum River. Aims to regulate water flow so that the river has enough depth for boat movement. The idea was first proposed in the early 1980s and began in 1984. The work was put to a stop due to the continued objections from Pakistan that this could violate the terms and conditions of the Treaty. Due to these objections, the project remained stalled for four decades. However, due to the recent suspension of the Treaty by India, efforts are being made to revive this project.

BAGLIHAR DAM DISPUTE – CHENAB RIVER⁹

The Baglihar Dam, also known as the Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project, is a run-of-the-river project located on the Chenab River in Ramban District in Jammu and Kashmir. The project was proposed in 1992 and approved in 1996, and construction began in 1999. After the construction started in 1999, Pakistan objected to this project, saying that this could violate the terms and conditions of the treaty. They claimed that the design parameters were too negligent, claimed that this project didn’t give India that much power generation, but an upper hand on the control of waters during the period of political tension and war. Both countries held talks between 1999 and 2004, but no outcome was reached. So, on 18^th January,2005, Pakistan approached the World Bank for the same, saying this could make a difference, after which the World Bank appointed a Neutral Expert for the same, which upheld some minor objections but rejected Pakistan’s claim for a difference

KISHENGANGA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT – JHELUM RIVER¹⁰

India started the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHEP) on the Kishanganga River (Neelum in Pakistan) in 2007 with the aim of diverting the river through an underground tunnel to a power house near Bonar Nallah in India-administered Kashmir. Pakistan objected to this project for the first time in 2006, before the start of the project, arguing that the project violated treaty terms and conditions. However, the matter went up to the Court of Arbitration in 2013, where the Court told India to divert water from the Kishanganga river for electricity production, but requires India to maintain a minimum flow of 9 Cubic Meters per second (cumecs)

RATLE HYDROELECTRIC PLANT – CHENAB RIVER¹¹

The Ratle Hydropower Project is a run-of-the-river hydroelectric power station on the Chenab River. This dam is currently under construction. Pakistan objected in 2016; however, in 2017, Pakistan wanted a Court of Arbitration to decide on the disputed issue, but India wanted a Neutral Expert. As of today, this dispute is still going on; no outcome has been given yet from the Court of Arbitration.

PAHALGAM ATTACK DISPUTE – JAMMU & KASHMIR¹²

On April 22^nd, 2025, in the Anantnag District of Jammu and Kashmir, The Resistance Front (TRF) carried out a terrorist attack, leaving 24-26 tourists dead. This attack was a critical point for the Indian government as the lives of people were at stake. Following the attack, our Prime Minister called an Emergency Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), leaving his trip to Saudi Arabia. The Cabinet Committee on Security took many decisions, but one of them was the immediate abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty. After many attacks and wars, India finally suspended the Indus Water Treaty and used the Treaty as a weapon against Pakistan. While Pakistan wrote many letters to our government, it still did not affect the decision, and till this date, the Indus Water Treaty stands suspended from the Indian Government.

DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISM UNDER INDUS WATER TREATY⁶

Article IX of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960, outlines a 3 – Tier Dispute Resolution process to address disagreements regarding projects on the Indus Rivers

Tier – 1: Permanent Indus Commission¹³

Both parties must inform each other about any planned projects on the Indus rivers
Permanent Indus Commission is responsible for managing and overseeing Treaty objectives
If the Permanent Indus Commission fails, the issue will be handled by the next tier

Tier – 2: Neutral Expert¹⁴

If the Permanent Indus Commission is not able to solve the issue, the World Bank appoints a Neutral expert who inquires into and oversees the issue
The Neutral Expert’s role is to solve the issue through technical assessments and recommendations
If the Neutral expert fails to solve the dispute, then the dispute will be handled by the next and last tier, however Neutral Expert’s decision is binding only if both parties agree.

Tier – 3: Court of Arbitration¹⁵

This is the final step, and if the issue cannot be solved by the Neutral Expert, then it is sent here to settle the dispute
The Chair of the Court of Arbitration is appointed by the World Bank
The decision of the Court of Arbitration is Final and considered Binding

CONCLUSION

The Indus Water Treaty is indeed very good in its own right, as it has withstood many wars and objections, but using a treaty¹ just as a weapon doesn’t seem fair. According to the Indian Constitution, everyone has the Right to life¹⁶ and the right to a safe and healthy environment¹⁷. Using water as a weapon and gaining an upper hand on another country that is somehow fully dependent on that single treaty¹ leads to cruelty, not fair revenge or defense. In the current scenario, where India suspends the IWT and denies giving water to Pakistan due to a terror attack, it shows the fragility of this treaty¹, as a country just came and abandoned the IWT and tries to deprive another country of water. Water, a basic natural resource on which almost the entire humanity is dependent, and denying someone a basic natural resource doesn’t seem a fair defense.

But on the other hand, you would love this decision as the terrorist doesn’t even seem bothered while murdering innocent tourists and even targeting a single religion. But for this while, this Suspension shows that the Indus Water Treaty is no longer unshakeable.